Yesterday’s action on Wall Street reflected high spirits ahead of the CPI data.
While the market had rallied into the data amid anticipation of a bullish outcome, the immediate positive reaction by stock index futures suggested that the data was even better than market participants had expected. The core data has been “stickier” than headline, so the drop this time out could get some attention. Core inflation slid to 4.8% on an annual basis from 5.3% the prior month, when analysts had expected 5% or above. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was better than expected across the board, and it could provide another boost to the bullish inflation deceleration narrative. As a reminder, core inflation is the more important reading to watch, as it excludes volatile food and energy costs. Headline inflation of 0.2% was also better than the expected 0.3% but up from 0.1% the prior month. core consumer inflation growth slowed to 0.2% in June, below analysts’ 0.3% expectations and down from 0.4% in May. inflation provided Wall Street an early lift this morning, but expectations for a rate hike later this month remain extremely high. (Wednesday market open) Comforting news on U.S. Producer Price Index tomorrow morning is up next, along with Thursday speech by Fed’s Waller PepsiCo, Delta among companies expected to report Thursday morning ahead of banks on Friday.CPI growth slowed in June, including core, reinforcing market expectations of just one more rate hike
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